One of our more ambitious product tweaks is now live — You now have advanced filtering options for Profitability, Probability, and Last Updated time if you are a Probly+ subscriber.
People will I’m sure be curious to know optimal settings given that you now have a lot more flexibility on this product. I’d encourage you to play with it since, frankly, there may be subsets of results you can achieve that we’re not aware of on a micro level (i.e. a massive ROI on bets over a 55% probability and a PROBLY Score above 5).
But if you want the basics, here are some key potential settings to know:
Generally in backtesting, we found bets with a PROBLY Score over 2 had a reliable 12-20% ROI per sport with a 45-60% win rate. These were the default settings for the “Most Profitable” sort previously. This setting would give you the biggest volume of bets with reliable profitability.
There are diminishing returns with any bet at a PROBLY Score over 1 due to the potential of that being within a margin of error but those bets boast positive ROIs and win rates too (at higher volume).
For content, I’d like to give us the best shot at 5-0 or 10-0 type of days since it’ll make promoting the product easier. So I personally plan to target bets with a PROBLY Score over 4 in our videos and written stuff. These settings give bets with slightly more upside — in terms of profitability or probability as it relates to profitability — at slightly less volume.
The reason that’s a “for content” setting than a practial one: You would likely get better results for overall profitability if you play more volume of +EV bets at a lower PROBLY Score since the biggest value of +EV betting like ours is getting as big of a sample size as possible to increase your mathematical advantage.
If you were playing as risk aversely as possible — perhaps trying to take slightly mispriced bets in a parlay — I’d target bets with a PROBLY Score above 4 and a probability of 50% or more. You’re limiting upside a little there by missing out on some of the high PROBLY Score bets around 40-50% but this would likely generate a quality win rate with a little giveback on ROI due to not paying off some longer shot bets.
I’d also apply these kinds of settings for parlay building in an effort to get your best value on a big shot from the combination of events that are slightly undervalued in terms of their hit rate and profitability.
Last setting to note — and we do plan to build something a little more direct for this in the future, but for now — if you are a PrizePicks or Underdog Pick’Em user, you should grab any bet over a 54% probability (55% if you want to be a nit). The reason? Both PrizePicks and Underdog have a 54.9% implied probablity per-leg on a five-leg Pick’Em, meaning you need to have your bets consist of that same amount to stay theoretically +EV over time. If you see a prop line over that probability on Probly, check it on PrizePicks/Underdog and add it to your card if it’s there.
You also now have the ability to filter by only Live games too if you’re a Probly+ Live user, which should be self-explanatory. Same for Last Updated, which allows you to filter events down to only ones in the last hour. We regularly pull bets that are stale near immediately but we figured some people may want that.
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