Expected Value Betting: How To

Expected value betting has become something of a buzzword in 2024. Many people out there talk about the concept of "+EV" without even knowing what it is.

+EV betting, or plus expected value betting, reflects that a situation is advantageous because it has win outcomes that will generate a more positive return than the cost of its loss outcomes.

In math, it's obvious. If a bet is expected to win 50% of the time but it has +1000 odds — meaning it wins $1000 50% of the time but the 50% of the time it loses, it loses your initial $100 stake — that bet has an expected value of about 450%.

(Win rate * win amount) - (Loss rate * loss amount) = Expected Value

This is the underpinning logic to everything you should do in betting.

Advantageous +EV betting means capitalizing on an incongruency between a bet's priced probability and its true probability.

That's why Probly provides you probability data from the sharpest sportsbooks around the world. Because they get action from the most successful bettors and syndicates worth tens of thousands — if not hundreds of thousands — per bet, their data is the most accurate in the world.

When you take that data and price bets — finding that Expected Value of what it's worth if a bet were played infinitely — you'll find advantages at the much less sharp legal US sportsbooks.

Our PROBLY Score metric is a reflection of this simple, yet crucial expected value betting calculation. It tells you how much more you'd expect to win if a bet were played infinitely, accounting for each bet's true probability and the sportsbook's cut.

Expected value betting is a trendy marketing concept, much like AI. Your ability to wield +EV betting intelligently is what will make your winnings real, not artificial.