It'll sound insane but there's one simple way to win more in betting that millions of people ignore.
Americans lost $11 billion in betting in 2023. They need to bet smarter.
It can be as simple as not falling for the trap of "data research" apps. These sites often are made by founders and teams lacking in domain expertise — sharp bettors know you can't outresearch the pricing algorithms of billion-dollar sportsbooks. A data visualization of how Luka Doncic performs in rebounds in games without Kyrie Irving is not an edge, it's a misdirection that will make you lose.
It can also be as simple as saying "No" to parlays. Yes, parlays and the upside of a big payday can be fun if played solely for entertainment. But ultimately, every additional event you ask to occur on a given night substantially lowers the likelihood of your bet winning. Parlays are a huge contributor to customer losses in the US.
But the big thing? The one obvious thing people can do to bet smarter and instantly lose less money?
Shop for the best odds
This is the kind of advice someone would give if they wanted to make an affiliate fee off of you for signing up for a new sportsbook, promising riches in new deposit bonuses.
But we don't collect affiliate fees for sportsbooks, we only care about you winning more in sports betting.
So let's think about the most obvious math. Many days, there are a lot of bets that Probly's top-of-market probability data says has a 50% hit rate. Normally, these 50/50 bets are priced at -110 odds. This ensures the sportsbook gets roughly a 5% profit (since they make 10% from each side of the bet).
Now let's say that same 50/50 bet is priced differently on another sportsbook. If you find that same 50/50 bet at +110 odds, you've made 20% more just from taking the best available bet instead.
With sportsbooks like DraftKings sneakily changing the price on some 50/50 bets to -115 (aka a 5% increase in cost to you for an additional 2.5% profit for them), it's becoming more crucial than ever to be price sensitive to odds.
Odds are a reflection of probability with the sportsbook's cut in it. When the sportsbook's cut grows, you need your bet to win with more frequency.
With how hard sports betting can be, give yourself your best shot to profit.
Take the bet at the sportsbook with the best odds.
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